Sunday, April 14, 2013
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
!!SAI PARSADAM!!
BIG BOSS
VIKAS PARSHURAM SAMWATSARE
**************************************************
15 ideas for 2013 FOR STOCK MARKET
It is that time of the year when everybody, who is anybody in the capital market, starts making
annual prediction as to what lies ahead for us in the year 2013.
And, unlike 2012, this year, it has become fashionable (acceptable?) to come out with a very
optimistic view.
But, the fact is that predicting the markets (for 2013) is challenging, to say the least. However, one
thing seems distinctly possible for our markets - we should start on a strong footing and hopefully
make an attempt to scale the November 2010 high (NIFTY- 6312, Sensex- 21005) in the first quarter
itself.
FISCAL CLIFF, RBI & UNION BUDGET
With the fiscal cliff deal in place, we feel that global factors will take a back-seat for sometime
now as India starts looking forward to the loosening of the monetary policy (RBI) later this month
and the Union Budget (from arguably the stock market’s most popular FM) in February.
And, while many may argue that populist measures will dictate the last Budget of the UPA
government (before the nation goes to polls in 2014), we beg to differ. While, like every year, the
Budget will have its huge dollops of populist measures, we do feel that the finance minister will
perform a good balancing act and announce measures to kickstart the economy, while continuing to
work on reining in the fiscal deficit.
And, our view is that if the present government harbours any hope of returning to power in 2014, it
will have to be very lucky as far as the state of the economy is concerned. If by election time, the
Indian economy is clearly back on the recovery path, it will be the single-largest trump card for the
government. Therefore, in all probability, we don’t expect the economy (and the stock markets) to
be ignored by the finance minister.
THE LIQUIDITY FACTOR:
While India saw huge inflows from FIIs in 2012, which contributed largely to the stock indices
yielding a 26 per cent return, one needs to accept that India attracted huge flows mainly at the cost
of China. Therefore, if China shows any semblance of recovery in the current year, it could divert
some inflows away from us.
INTEREST RATES WILL DOME DOWN, FINALLY:
Some of the pre-conditions for a rate-cut – lower rate of price increases and a decline in fiscal
deficit – are emerging. However, the magnitude of decline in interest rates will depend on crude oil
and other commodity prices remaining stable, or falling. Also, it needs to be taken into account
that lower funding (interest) costs could translate into higher imports, weakening the currency. This remains a worry.
annual prediction as to what lies ahead for us in the year 2013.
And, unlike 2012, this year, it has become fashionable (acceptable?) to come out with a very
optimistic view.
But, the fact is that predicting the markets (for 2013) is challenging, to say the least. However, one
thing seems distinctly possible for our markets - we should start on a strong footing and hopefully
make an attempt to scale the November 2010 high (NIFTY- 6312, Sensex- 21005) in the first quarter
itself.
FISCAL CLIFF, RBI & UNION BUDGET
With the fiscal cliff deal in place, we feel that global factors will take a back-seat for sometime
now as India starts looking forward to the loosening of the monetary policy (RBI) later this month
and the Union Budget (from arguably the stock market’s most popular FM) in February.
And, while many may argue that populist measures will dictate the last Budget of the UPA
government (before the nation goes to polls in 2014), we beg to differ. While, like every year, the
Budget will have its huge dollops of populist measures, we do feel that the finance minister will
perform a good balancing act and announce measures to kickstart the economy, while continuing to
work on reining in the fiscal deficit.
And, our view is that if the present government harbours any hope of returning to power in 2014, it
will have to be very lucky as far as the state of the economy is concerned. If by election time, the
Indian economy is clearly back on the recovery path, it will be the single-largest trump card for the
government. Therefore, in all probability, we don’t expect the economy (and the stock markets) to
be ignored by the finance minister.
THE LIQUIDITY FACTOR:
While India saw huge inflows from FIIs in 2012, which contributed largely to the stock indices
yielding a 26 per cent return, one needs to accept that India attracted huge flows mainly at the cost
of China. Therefore, if China shows any semblance of recovery in the current year, it could divert
some inflows away from us.
INTEREST RATES WILL DOME DOWN, FINALLY:
Some of the pre-conditions for a rate-cut – lower rate of price increases and a decline in fiscal
deficit – are emerging. However, the magnitude of decline in interest rates will depend on crude oil
and other commodity prices remaining stable, or falling. Also, it needs to be taken into account
that lower funding (interest) costs could translate into higher imports, weakening the currency. This remains a worry.
3 | P a g e
PCG Research
PCG
2013 – THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
THE RUPEE:
India’s current account deficit widened to a record high of 5.4 per cent of GDP in the September
quarter as export growth slowed more sharply than imports, and with a similar gap expected in the
December quarter, the weakness in the rupee is likely to be prolonged. A sharp rise in gold imports,
a hefty oil bill and falling exports due to the global slowdown have kept India’s current account
deficit at persistently high levels.
The rupee was the third worst performer in Asia in 2012, even though net inflows into Indian stocks
were the highest in the region.
EUROPE CRISIS – FAR FROM OVER
Even as financial markets are calmer and the chances of the euro disintegrating have diminished, it
has come at the cost of highly indebted eurozone states committing themselves to spending and tax
increases. This could ultimately lead to the 17-nation eurozone contracting further in 2013 as
deficit-cutting measures bite deeper. Rising unemployment and falling tax receipts would make it
harder for governments in countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece and even France to meet their
budgeted targets.
That could unsettle financial markets again, particularly in countries where political instability is
adding to the uncertainty.
CONCLUSION:
We do believe that the Indian markets will start on a firm footing and possibly make a new high in
2013. However, global equity markets are unlikely to do well as macro factors look terrible and one
could see a sharp growth slowdown as we move into the year. And, while India will show great
outperformance in 2013, it can’t remain immune to a bad global situation and therefore, will suffer
some hiccups going ahead.
PCG Research
PCG
2013 – THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
THE RUPEE:
India’s current account deficit widened to a record high of 5.4 per cent of GDP in the September
quarter as export growth slowed more sharply than imports, and with a similar gap expected in the
December quarter, the weakness in the rupee is likely to be prolonged. A sharp rise in gold imports,
a hefty oil bill and falling exports due to the global slowdown have kept India’s current account
deficit at persistently high levels.
The rupee was the third worst performer in Asia in 2012, even though net inflows into Indian stocks
were the highest in the region.
EUROPE CRISIS – FAR FROM OVER
Even as financial markets are calmer and the chances of the euro disintegrating have diminished, it
has come at the cost of highly indebted eurozone states committing themselves to spending and tax
increases. This could ultimately lead to the 17-nation eurozone contracting further in 2013 as
deficit-cutting measures bite deeper. Rising unemployment and falling tax receipts would make it
harder for governments in countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece and even France to meet their
budgeted targets.
That could unsettle financial markets again, particularly in countries where political instability is
adding to the uncertainty.
CONCLUSION:
We do believe that the Indian markets will start on a firm footing and possibly make a new high in
2013. However, global equity markets are unlikely to do well as macro factors look terrible and one
could see a sharp growth slowdown as we move into the year. And, while India will show great
outperformance in 2013, it can’t remain immune to a bad global situation and therefore, will suffer
some hiccups going ahead.
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
20/12/2012 stocks news
VPS
The Lok Sabha cleared the Banking Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2011, after
Finance Minister P Chidambaram agreed to drop the contentious proposal
on allowing banks to do futures trading.
The government on Tuesday cleared the decks for the Reserve Bank of
India ( RBI) to initiate the process to issue new banking licences and
widened the window for infusion of capital into the banking sector.
The Lok Sabha on Tuesday approved the much-awaited Companies Bill, 2011,
making it mandatory for profit-making companies to spend on activities
related to corporate social responsibility (CSR). If a company does not
do so, it will have to explain the reasons for it.
The Bill, aimed at improving corporate governance, also contains
provisions to strengthen regulations for companies and auditing firms.
Bookies feel BJP won't even score 100
Yesssssssssssss
Who should you believe? National pollsters or Gujarat's bookies? The
pollsters, through exit polls, have predicted 120-140 seats for BJP in
the 182-seat state assembly. The latter are offering odds that suggest
the party will find it tough to cross 100 seats.
If the pollsters are right, Modi's national ambitions get the boost. If
the bookies get it right, the Gujarat chief minister may be coping with a
win that comes packaged with a loss of face.
Gujarat's betting market for the elections, say local observers, is big -
bets worth around Rs 5,000 crore have been placed. Therefore, big money
will change hands in the widely participated but illegal betting
market. And that market is pricing a Modi victory margin differently
now.
An Ahmedabad-based bookie said the higher-than-expected voter turnout of
71% has made him and others offer bigger odds against a big Modi win.
Six days ago, bookies were willing to offer 114 paise for every 100
paise bet on BJP winning 100 seats. Today, the betting market is willing
to pay 117 paise for 100 paise for the same bet.
The higher the payout promised to the punter, the bigger the bookie's
confidence that his own prediction - in this case, the BJP will not hit
or cross 100 seats - has a better chance than the punter's. Following
the same logic the market is ready to pay 250 paise (per 100 paise) if
the BJP wins more than 120 seats, which bookies now consider a fairly
low probability outcome. Six days ago, the rate was 120-123 paise.
The current odds for BJP getting 110 seats have also lengthened.
Earlier, punters were offer 145 paise payout for 100 paise bet. Now,
they are getting 156 paise for a 100 paise punt on BJP hitting 110.
However, the bookies have not altered the 500 paise reward for the
Congress winning more than 65 seats - the least likely outcome from the
point of view of the betting market.
Yessssssssssss
Yessssssss
Full Story For Subscriber's Very Soon!!!!
Be A Subscriber's Today!!!
Yesssssssssssssssssssss
Surpassing China, India will become the world’s largest economy by 2050, says a report.
“China will overtake the US to become the world’s largest economy by
2020, which in turn will be overtaken by India in 2050,” according to
Wealth Report 2012 by Knight Frank & Citi Private Bank.
According to the report, the Indian economy will reach a size of $85.97
trillion in terms of purchasing power parity by 2050, while the Chinese
GDP would be $80.02 trillion during the same period.
The US — currently the world’s largest economy — is expected to have a GDP of $39.07 trillion by 2050.
Other nations in the top ten list of world’s largest economies would be
Indonesia (4th), Brazil (5th), Nigeria (6th), Russia (7th), Mexico
(8th), Japan (9th) and Egypt (10th).
In terms of growth from 2010-2050, India would be the second fastest
with its economy growing at the rate of eight per cent in the period.
With a pace of 8.5 per cent, Nigeria would be the fastest growing economy during the same period, the report said.
In 2010, India was the world’s fourth largest economy with a value of
$3.92 trillion compared to China’s $9.98 trillion and America’s $14.12
trillion.
The report named Surat and Nagpur among the fast-growing cities to watch in 2050.
“We believe the cities to watch in 2050 are the 400 emerging market
middleweights — fast growing cities with populations between 200,000 and
10 million.
“This dynamic group includes many cities that are not household names
today: Linyi, Kelamayi and Guiyang in China; Surat and Nagpur in India;
Concepcion and Belem in Latin America,” it said.
Think Big TO EARN BIGGG
VIKAS PARSURAM SAMWATSARE
|
Sunday, December 16, 2012
!!SAI PARSADAM!!
BIG BOSS
VIKAS PARSHURAM SAMWATSARE
SHARE MARKET SHORT MEDIUM AND LONG TIME INVESTMENT TIPS
DATED 17/12/2012
Buy NTPC for target of 162 - 165 with stop loss of 148. . . . . . Comments - After making high of 175 (12/09/12), scrip was in correction mode & on Friday after making low of 149 scrip closed positive at 153, forming bullish Piercing pattern at bottom, supported by positive indicators & increasing volume. From here near term possible target comes to 162 – 165. In between 157 will act as intermediate resistance levels.Comments After making high of 175 (12/09/12), scrip was in
Buy HCL TECH for target of 659 with stop loss of 617. . . . . . Comments - From the bottom of 504, scrip is in rising trend forming higher tops & higher bottoms. After making high of 659 (30/11/12) scrip again went down to make new higher bottom & made a low of 608 (12/12/12) & started moving upward. On Friday it closed positive above its DMA at 630 forming bullish candle with increasing volume & positive indicators indicates possible uptrend. From here short-term target pri
Buy DLF for target of 229 with stop loss of 213. . . . . . . Comments - After a substantial rise from 197 to 229, scrip started coming down & gave around 50% correction of the rally & made low of 213.55. On Friday it closed positive at 218 levels, forming Harami pattern at bottom indicates possible up trend. From here near term possible target comes to 229.
Buy Pidilite Industries Ltd. For Target Rs.256
We rate Pidilite Industries a BUY. Pidilite, incorporated in 1959, has
been a pioneer in the Consumer and Specialities Chemicals in India.
Pidilite Industries is the market leader in adhesives and sealants,
construction chemicals, hobby colours and polymer emulsions in India.
Its brand name Fevicol has become synonymous with adhesives to millions
in India and is ranked amongst the most trusted brands in India.
Investment Highlights
Established Brand name: Pidilite has strong brands like Fevicol,
Dr.Fixit, Fevi Kwik, m-seal, hobby ideas, moto max, Fevi stik etc.
Fevicol has become the household name in india and is the largest
selling white adhesive brand in india. With established brand name in
the field of adhesives and construction chemical, the prospect of the
company appears promising in the future.
Strong Financials with Consistent Growth :
The company’s net sales and profit have grown at 10 year CAGR growth of
18% and 21% respectively. With Strong ROE of 26.9% and D/E ratio of
0.24, the fundamental of the company looks strong.
Adding new products to strengthen its product line :
Fevicryl Hobby Ideas, a leading hobby acrylic colours brand, added to
its wide range of products by launching Sparkling Pear Colours. These
colours give a unique sparkling shine to hand painted articles on fabric
and non-fabric surfaces. Also Dr. Fixit Kwikflor Cementitious Flooring
Solutions was launched specifically to level and renovate industrial
floors that are exposed to heavy loads and frequent abrasions. Wudfill,
a cynoacrylite adhesive, was launched for the first time in India for
the woodworking segment. This product is used to fill holes and knots in
wood.
Announcement of any positive development on Elastomer project will add a new positive trigger to the stock:
Though the elastomer project where the company has already incurred a
capex of INR350 crore is currently on hold from 2 years but any
positive development on the project will add a new positive trigger to
the stock.
Business Segment of the company
The Business Segment of the company is divided into two broad segments
A. Consumer & Bazaar Products: :
Branded Consumer & Bazaad products Segment contributes 79% of the
total sales of the company and have grown at a 5Yr CAGR of 17.6%. This
division includes Adhesives & Selants, Construction Chemical and Art
Materials.
B. Speciality Industrial Chemical: :
Speciality Industrial Chemical Segment contributes 21% of the total
sales of the company This division includes Industrial Resins, Industral
Adhesives and Organic Pigments.
FCCB Redemption of USD 40 million
The company had issued total FCCBs (Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds)
of USD 40 million in December 2007 which are due to be redeemed on
December 2012. The company has successfully completed the redemption
process by partly converting the bonds into shares and by partly making
the payment in cash for the purpose of redeeming the total FCCB amount.
This successful redemption of FCCB may further provide strength to the
stock.
VALUATION
At the CMP of INR212, the stock discounts its FY13E EPS of INR7.6 by
27.9x and its FY14E EPS of INR9.5 by 22.4x. With Strong Brand Value,
Consistent financial growth, Strong ROE and innovated product line, the
prospect of the company looks bright. The Stock has historically traded
at a 3Yr average P/E of 28x as per Bloomberg. We Assign a P/E multiple
of 27x to its FY14E EPS of INR9.5 to arrive at the target price of
INR256 for the stock.
Key Concern
Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) is the main raw material, and its price is
linked to crude oil. High volatility in raw material prices can impact
margins if the company is unable to pass on the price increase to the
end customer.
Negative development or announcement on the Elastomer project will have a material impact on the price of the stock,b
Accumulate Apollo Tyres For Target Rs. 95.00
Natural Rubber prices have been correcting over the past few months and
more so over the past few days. Correction in natural rubber prices
augur well for APTY in the current weak demand environment. Given weak
demand for tyres, revenues may not grow significantly, but margin
expansion looks a real possibility given the recent correction in
natural rubber prices. Company has approved fund raising through QIP
and warrant to promoters to fund future capex plans. Impending dilution
on account of this could however remain an overhang for the stock
price until more clarity emerges on this issue. We retain our
ACCUMULATE rating on the stock with unchanged price target of Rs95.
Outlook and Valuations
* Volume outlook remains subdued over the near to medium term. On the
other hand, softening of natural rubber prices should aid margin
expansion, going ahead.
* At the CMP of Rs85, the stock trades at 6.3x its FY14E consolidated EPS of Rs13.6.
* We retain our ACCUMULATE rating on the stock with price target of
Rs95. We have valued the stock at 7x FY14E consolidated earnings to
arrive at our target price.
Buy KPIT Cummins Infosystems Ltd For Target Rs.128.00
* KPIT Cummins Infosystems Ltd, a global IT consulting & product
engineering partner, is focused on co-innovating domain intensive
technology solutions for manufacturing corporations.
* During the quarter, the company acquired additional 17.5% stake in SYSTIME for which the consideration was INR 386 million.
* During the first quarter ended the robust growth in the Net Profit of
the company and it is rose by 360.04% to Rs. 440.99 million.
* KPIT Cummins Infosystems has approved the merger of Sparta Infotech
India Private Ltd (step down subsidiary) with KPIT Cummins Infosystems
Ltd.
* KPIT wins Oracle Excellence Award for Specialized partner of the
year- North America in the Regional System Integrator/ Reseller
Applications momentum category.
* Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% and 19% over 2011 to 2014E respectively.
* KPIT Cummins semiconductor hardware solutions business entered into
partnership with Sankalp Semiconductor Pvt. Ltd., to create Sankalp
& KPIT Semiconductor Pvt. Ltd.
Outlook and Conclusion
* At the current market price of Rs.113.00, the stock P/E ratio is at 19.45 x FY13E and 17.28 x FY14E respectively.
* Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY13E and FY14E is seen at Rs.5.81 and Rs.6.54 respectively.
* Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% and 19% over 2011 to 2014E respectively.
* On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 11.33 x for FY13E and 10.24 x for FY14E.
* Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 2.81 x and 2.42 x respectively for FY13E and FY14E.
* We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue
for the next years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters
also. We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price
of Rs.128.00 for Medium to Long term investment.
Buy Greaves Cotton Ltd. For Target Rs.85
GCL
earnings were flat for the quarter given decline in 3W industry
volumes. EBITDA margins were lower due to margin decline in core
businessof engines as well as due to continued loss in infrastructure equipment division.
* Valuations are attractive for a company with high return ratios of ~ 20%. We maintain BUY with a revised target price of Rs 85 (Rs 84 earlier)
* Risks and Concerns: Upgrade by customers to 4W LCVs may cannibalise 3W LCV volumes which is the stronghold of GCL. We would remain
watchful about this emerging threat.
Valuation
GCL is currently trading at 12.0x and 11.2x FY13 and FY14 earnings respectively. While industry outlook remains weak, we believe valuations are reasonable at this price. Hence maintain BUY with an revised DCF based price target of Rs 85 (Rs 84 earlier).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)